Over the past few weeks I have been inundated with political advertising in email, snail mail, television, radio and text messages… so… many… text messages. How did they get my number? I am getting them from both sides of the aisle. Sigh. I will be so glad when this election is over. As I find myself anxious for the conclusion, I am equally curious as to who will win. I have seen both sides already claiming victory. A “blue wave” is coming says Democrats, so get ready. Check out this quote from CBS News.
Wall Street firms are increasingly advising their clients to prepare for a “Blue Wave” of victories in next month’s national election. Such an outcome would land Joe Biden in the White House and give Democrats a majority in both chambers of Congress.
In the past month, at least five of Wall Street’s top strategists have sent reports to investors predicting a Democratic sweep. Goldman Sachs told clients in a research note earlier this week that the odds of Biden winning the presidency and Democrats gaining a majority in the Senate is roughly 65%. Analysts with the investment bank pointed out that stock prices have been rising since September, coinciding with political polls tilting increasingly toward Biden.
Goldman also wrote that stocks and other investments that tend to rise when investors expect more inflation have lead the market higher since mid-September. This “reinflation trade,” as it is called on Wall Street, is being fueled in part by expectations that a Blue Wave next month will increase the likelihood of lawmakers approving another major round of federal spending on unemployment benefits, cash payments for Americans and other stimulus measures.
Simultaneously, the Republicans are dancing in the streets over the “red wave” that is sure to come. In USA Today, President Trump touted that a “big, beautiful red wave” was coming on Election Night, ignoring the multiple national polls that show him trailing to rival Joe Biden. Here’s a video on that.
I understand that both sides have an interest in confidently bragging on victories they have not won yet. I can respect that. However, I respect data more so I did some digging. Although I could be wrong, very wrong, I am predicting that President Trump will win the election and bigly. Why? Google Trends data.
I looked up “how to vote” on Google Trends and noticed a very sharp spike around the time of early voting. Makes sense to me. People who have never voted before wanted answers ahead of the barrage of political advertising they were likely being subjected to.
If I were a first time voter and I wanted to know how to vote democrat, I would likely Google that phrase. I think my thinking was inline because that was a popular search this past year. Around the time of early voting, there was a gradual trend upward suggesting to me that there lots of people wanting to vote Democrat for the first time.
Google Trends lets you compare searches so I overlapped the results of “how to vote Democrat” (indicated in blue) with “how to vote Republican” (indicated in red) and I saw a greater advantage for Republicans, albeit not by a wide margin.
So, at this point, my thinking is that its a horse race and all the talk of waves was just political blustering. However, that changed with my last search – “how to vote for Trump.” Umm… wow. The results towered over both major parties.
After seeing this, I wanted to go a bit deeper. I compared “how to vote biden” with “how to vote trump” and compared the results over all. Trump had the lead by a wide margin during early stage voting.
Something else that can be done on Google Trends is that you can see where in the USA the majority of those searches are done. If more people have been searching for Biden in GA then GA would look blue on the Google Trends map. As of now, based on Google Trends data, the country is almost completely red. (Color intensity represents percentage of searches.)
I am not a political analyst so, take this with a grain of salt. Both sides are pretty polarized at this point so, whomever can get first time voters on their side may very well win. If that is indeed the case then, it looks like the wave will be red. Of course, I could be wrong. As with anything I share that may be triggering, please head over to Google Trends and conduct your own research. Here is a link to my last search.
Whether I am right or wrong, Election Day is almost here so this post will soon be a bragging right or a post of shame. Either way, I am leaving it posted. Enjoy.
Jim
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