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For Democrats, The End is Near
Joe Biden has been in the White House for one year. Since then, public opinion on Biden and the Democrat party has shifted dramatically. Consider this Gallup poll that shows the rate of people shifting from being a Democrat to being a Republican. To quote…
Gallup asks all Americans it interviews whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican or Democratic Party. The combined percentage of party identifiers and leaners gives a measure of the relative strength of the two parties politically.
Both the nine-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter and the five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in any quarter since it began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991.
The rate that people are deserting one party for the other is dramatic. I think it signals more a dissatisfaction in how things are going verses an attraction for the Republican party. Why? Consider the following quote on Independents.
The broader trend toward an increasing share of political independents has been clear over the past decade, with more Americans viewing themselves as independents than did so in the late 1980s through 2000s. At least four in 10 Americans have considered themselves independents in all years since 2011, except for the 2016 and 2020 presidential election years. Before 2011, independent identification had never reached 40%.
To paraphrase, there is a large and growing set of Americans who do not like either party but who will likely vote Republican because they are presently seen as the lesser evil.
No matter how you slice it, things do not look good for those seeking to retain power as the mid-term elections loom. With the writing on the wall, I predict that we will see a lot of frustration as incumbents seek to reset their strategies for wooing voters. Expect to hear the left avoid their accountability for how they have governed. Instead of the voters repudiating how Democrats have governed, the big red wave will be branded an insurrection in slow motion. And while it would be prudent for Democrats to stop, reassess and listen to the constituency, lookout for zealots who absolve their leadership of any blame and instead point fingers at their followers.
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